PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY POLICY IN RUSSIAN NORTHERN REGION

                The announcement of a new state energy policy in 2010 casts a shadow of uncertainty over Russia’s future direction and commitment towards renewable energy [1]. This policy announces that “the country’s economy eventually will turn towards the use of alternative energy resources. However, before that, the country will boost production of oil and gas”. This amendment updates Russia’s previous policy which laid out Russia’s approach to energy through to the year 2020. The policy revision was made as a result of pressures brought about by the world-wide “credit crisis”. Russia’s commitment to renewable energy policy is now pushed out by a further decade to 2030.

                Within the Murmansk region, this new policy impact needs to be fully assessed and new regional policies devised. What are the plans for the new regional administration? Is there a desire and political appetite for the region to become a pioneer of renewable energy in the light of the new energy policy? Can it be stated that this lack of policy commitment could result in the region encountering difficulties which may, in the medium to long term, threaten Energy Security for the North West. Problems with energy generation (equipment obsolescence), energy transmission (grid limitation) and energy tariffs (profiteering) all need to be coherently and consistently managed.

                Lack of operational controls and effective legislative structure towards the development of renewable energy within the region does inevitably impose uncertainty. There are urgent questions:

• If this uncertainty is not managed effectively and early investment secured (either from within Russia or from foreign collaboration) then how sustainable is the region’s current energy balance?
• How long can current operations continue and be sustained - if a “do nothing” energy policy is adopted across Russia?
• Is there an understanding of what critical (generator) mechanical components may fail first?
• Is there an understanding f which industries will consequently be worst effected should electricity supplies become intermittent?
• Is it to be anticipated that privatised generator companies will want to invest and replace failed components to provide future energy security or will they adopt a minimalist “patch and repair” policy?
• How long can the region’s current infrastructure continue to operate if nothing further happens to sustain the regions energy capability?
• What is the outlook for the Kola nuclear power station (who’s life has already been extended by 25 years), what plans are in place for the next 15 years? Will a new power station be commissioned? Will new reactors be constructed? Or will the power station be de-commissioned? Indeed, could the region sustain the complete withdrawal of the power station if nothing further occurs to supplement its grid energy loss?

                The rest of the world is moving forward at a pace with large scale commitment to renewable energy, in particularly wind energy. Russia currently lies 52nd (of 76) in world table of installed wind energy production. Many countries, especially across Europe, are adopting a 20-20-20 policy (by the year 2020, to reduce fossil fuel consumption by 20%, to reduce CO2 emissions by 20%, to increase renewable energy generation by 20%).

                Many of these countries do not have the renewable energy potential evident in the Kola Peninsula. The table 1 below shows that the Kola Peninsular can potentially generate more wind energy than many similar areas across the world.

Table 1

Scotland (who’s geography is not so dissimilar to that of the Kola Region) has only a third of the potential of the Kola Peninsula. Coupled with this huge potential for wind energy is the immediate availability of Kola’s 17 hydro electric plants to help provide stable energy sources during lower periods of wind speeds. Valerie Minin (head of the Lab for renewable energy in Kola Science Centre) projects renewable energy could replace 351,000 tonnes of fossil fuels if the Centre’s programme on renewal energy is adopted [2].

                Also planned for construction are two windparks (200mw and 100mw) [3]. The first along the Murmansk – Tumany road and will be built by Windlife Energy BV. Today, the company already has in its hands the positive decision of the Murmansk Regional Interdepartmental Commission on the Industry Citing to build the wind park, as well as all necessary documents confirming its location. Paul Logchieis, the company’s director, suggests the Murmansk Region has the highest wind indicators in Europe. These benchmark data were a catalyst in the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development’s decision to earmark, despite the world financial crisis, €300 million for the realisation of this project. It is planned the wind park will be operational by 2012. Although there are dependencies in obtaining support from the Russian Federation for the framework of federal laws on the support of sources for alternative energy.

                The second wind park will be built by the St.

Petersburg based Russia company Russky Veter, Ltd. (Russian Wind, Ltd). It’s 50 windmills will be situated in the Pechenga District of the Murmansk Region near the village of Linakhamara, were he average wind speed reaches eight metres a second. The approximate cost of construction is €110 million. It is assumed that the means to realise the project will come only from Russia banks and investors. The plan is that the wind park will come online in 2011, and will have paid for itself in seven to nine years. Construction is slated to start at the end of this year.

                As oil stocks decline, Aberdeen (Scottland) is trying to recreate itself from the “Oil Capital of Europe” to the “Energy Capital of Europe”. Can the port of Murmansk similarly position itself as a world energy centre? It is the gate to the Artic Sea Way and is comparatively close to the ports of Western Europe. It is ice free all year round. Do the oil and gas deposits located in the artic shelf area offer fresh opportunities for Murmansk to become the energy capital of the North West region?

                Protecting the environment became a major concern to the people in northern Russia and this concern brought about the first example of multilateral cooperation between the Arctic states during the 1990s. The focus of studies and reports produced during this period all stress the importance of nuclear safety, particularly around the Barents Sea region [4]. Renewable energy sources could certainly be a positive force for not only withstanding climate change but also in lessening concerns around nuclear energy for the people in the northern Russia and its neighbouring western countries.

                Energy issues are taking a central position in current relations between North America, Europe and Russia. At the turn of 2005-2006 interruptions to the supply of energy from Russia, “made energy security a central topic” with her European neighbours [5]. This resulted in a more rapid development of non-conventional renewable energy sources which also, has been beneficial for climate change as well. It is a part of functional cooperation across national borders in the Barents Euro-Arctic Region.

                The cooperation between ecologists, scientists, governmental and state economic authorities, and business, begun by non-governmental organizations in 2006, saw the creation of a working group to develop the region’s long-term strategic program - “Development of non-conventional and renewable sources of energy in Murmansk region for 2009-2015” [6].

                Financing of the program comes mainly sourced from businesses. However the regional budget will provide 400,000 RUR by way of subsidies to the municipalities and enterprises falling within the scope of the program. It is projected that the amount of renewable energy produced in 2015 will be 7.7%. All this strongly contributes towards supporting the new prospects for renewable energy development within North-West Russia as one of measures to counterbalance climate change.

                Investments and actions based on the – still imperfect – scientific understanding of human physiology, diseases, their prevention and cures are probably the cause of the greatest increase in human welfare over the past two centuries. It might well be that investments and actions based on the scientific understanding of what I call the physiology of the planet are the key to human welfare in the 21st century [7]. In climate change terms we must move from residual skepticism to the implementation of solutions to energy needs without using fossil fuels as quickly as possible. A new strategic deployment of arguments, alongside precise protests to move society into a new direction, will be the means of getting there.

                In summary, opportunities for self-sufficiency within the region clearly exist. Significant research and effort has already taken place to assess the, determine and evidence the viability of the region to pioneer the way forward for the rest of Russia and to bring the region to the same footing as the rest of Europe. Critically, the Kola Region is regarded by foreign experts and investors as an area of enormous potential that can demonstrably bring about commercial success.

                The region must energetically and positively pursue regional security on two fronts. Outward: to pursue continued self-sufficiency through innovative energy policies and legislative reform to emerge as a creditable and viable and attractive renewable energy generator rivalling Europe’s and the world’s best. Inward: to conduct a forensic and objective assessment of the regions capability to sustain its current capabilities over the next decade in the absence of policy reform and foreign/regional development to renewable energy.

                References

1. Russia’s Energy Strategy till 2030. – Moscow, Institute for Energy Strategy, 2010, 180 p.
2. Minin, V., Dmitriev, G., 2007, Prospect for development of non-conventional and renewable sources of energy on the Kola Peninsula, Bellona Report, Oslo, 2007, 117 p.
3. Tuinova, S., 2008. The Call for Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources in Murmansk Region, in collection “North and Market: the Building of Economic Form”. – No.1/2008 (20) – P.118-125
4. Bergman R., Baklanov A., Segerstahl B. 1996. ”Overvew of Nuclear Risks on the Kola Peninsula. Summary Report” (IIASA Radiation Safety of the Biosphere. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Luxemburg. May 1996)
5. Heininen Lassi, 2007, “Changes in Problem Definition on Northern Security”, in Nordic Environmental Social Sciences Conference. June 18-20, 2007. Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Institute for URBAN AND EGIONAL Research (NIBR). www.nibr.no
6. Official Internet-Portal for the Government of the Murmansk region, News on International Conference “Adaptation to Climate change and its Role in Ensuring sustainable development of regions”, Murmansk, 2008, May 13-14, http://www.gov-murman.ru/
7. Simon Lewis, 2008, “Scientists on the Streets: To get the Climate Change Message Across, environmental scientists need better arguments – and more public protests” Tuesday 10 March 2009 10.30 GMT http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/mar/10/climate-change-environment-scientists